This year, our Conference will be enriched with two remarkable keynote speakers! After introducing Dr. Alexander Trautrims from Nottingham University is our great honor to present Prof. Arthur V. Hill as our keynote speaker for the 19th International scientific conference Business Logistics in Modern Management (BLMM2019)!
Professor Arthur V. Hill (Art) is the John and Nancy Lindahl Professor in the Supply Chain and Operations Department in the Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota. He is also the Academic Director of the Carlson Consulting Enterprise. Until recently, he was the Associate Dean for MBA programs in the Carlson School and the Director for the Supply Chain & Operations Board of Advisors. He has been awarded numerous teaching awards at the Carlson School and was recognized as an outstanding instructor in several national publications including Business Week. He has been a visiting professor at Indiana University, the Moscow Institute of Management, IMD International in Lausanne Switzerland, Wits University in Johannesburg South Africa, the National University of Singapore, and Eastern International University in Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam. He has provided operations management consulting for over 100 organizations, including 3M, Best Buy, Boston Scientific, Cargill, Ceridian, CH Robinson, Cummins, Delta Airlines, Donaldson, Dow Chemical, Easter Seals/Goodwill, Ecolab, General Mills, Goodrich, Home Depot, Honeywell, Land O’Lakes, Mayo Clinic, Medtronic, Methodist Hospital, Nestlé, Radisson, Sam Goody, St. Jude Medical, Target, Thomson Reuters, Toro, and US Bank. His Encyclopedia of Operations Management – 2018 Edition is a popular text at many business schools around the world. He attended West Point for two years and then earned a BA in Mathematics from Indiana University and then an MS in Industrial Administration and a PhD in Management from the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University. He is committed to helping organizations add more value to their customers, shareholders, and employees – and to helping Carlson School MBA students succeed in their education, career, and life.
On his BLMM plenary lecture, Prof. Hill will give a lecture titled:
Forecasting the Forecastability Quotient for Inventory Management!
This research develops and empirically tests a model to estimate the economic advantage of using a time phased order point system (TPOP) with time series forecasting over a simple reorder point system in an independent demand inventory management context. Empirical study of a large dataset of time series from a Fortune 100 firm found that the forecastability quotient (Q) in the holdout sample can be predicted with just three variables from the estimation sample. Surprisingly, many highly touted time series metrics (e.g., coefficient of variation and approximate entropy) and forecast accuracy metrics (e.g., mean absolute percent error) were not good predictors of Q.